Pacific Balance Pinniped Scociety - The Science

IronNoggin

Well-Known Member
I understand many here have been patiently waiting for me to get something up in this regard.
I believe the following presentation by Dr. Carl Walters pretty much addresses the vast majority of concerns & and questions I have seen posted here. The seminar is an hour long. It is well worth the watch.
Please, no questions or comments from any that have not watched this in it's entirety as the answers you seek will have largely been addressed within the video:


Any that wish a copy of the related power point presentation feel free to pm and I will send along (I simply do not know how to post that from an internal file).

Cheers,
Nog
 
interesting to hear how sea lions follow the herring around the coast. Hammer them all summer long up north of VI, then follow them down south in the winter for when they spawn on the inside.

Would be interesting to see how much herring they eat annually. Lots of advocates on here for protecting herring populations.
 
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interesting to hear how sea lions follow the herring around the coast. Hammer them all summer long up north of VI, then follow them down south in the winter for when they spawn on the inside.

Would be interesting to see how much herring they eat annually. Lots of advocates on here for protecting herring populations.
Look at the pinniped society page on FB. There are some alarming numbers there on how much herring is consumed by the sealions.
 
Look at the pinniped society page on FB. There are some alarming numbers there on how much herring is consumed by the sealions.

I have looked on there but the numbers have changed a few times so not sure. how much herring would one sea lion eat in a year?
 
Thanks for posting, Carl's info in the lecture is very helpful in explaining the history and science behind the connection between pinniped predation on out-migrant smolts and ocean survival. Very clearly there is a strong correlation between out-migrant predation and Chinook/coho abundance (and I would argue Sockeye and Steelhead as well). This hasn't been in dispute for some time now given the science that clearly identifies the cause. A new learning from Carl's lecture was the impact analysis of removing seals and potential offsetting benefits that were argued for keeping other predators of Chinook smolts such as pacific hake and the error in the forecasting model (5x over-forecast in predation by hake). That was helpful....as was his analysis of the potential impacts on transient killer whales. This isn't a message DFO wants to hear, because it doesn't fit their pre-conceived notions of the problem and solutions.

I still think the approach to seeking a fishery in the way it has been done is the problematic part. There is growing public awareness and support for some form of selective predator control program (that could involve harvest) - what has the potential to derail that is when we characterize the narrative in such ways as describing it as a "cull" or "harvest" along the lines of reducing populations by 50% or several thousands of animals. People react less favourably to that narrative and approach than something along the lines of an adaptive management experiment which starts out small scale, conducts an ecosystem assessment, re-evaluates and adapts the experimental design based on what we learn and scientifically validate.

Beyond that, the other problematic part is when we see people acting out (the seal bomb incident), or taking matters into their own hands (several animals shot and showing up either dead on beaches or injured) ....those things provide your opponents with the platform to shift public support.

I would love nothing more than to be able to have Dr. Walters come and share his science with the Technical Working Group on Prey Availability when we start meeting/discussing prey availability for Chinook (herring, crab larvae, krill) and Pinniped Predation. These are the next topics the TWG will be meeting to address. Perhaps your group should be pressing DFO to have Dr. Walters participating in the Prey Availability TWG?

Baby steps IMO are better than large leaps.
 
... People react less favourably to that narrative and approach than something along the lines of an adaptive management experiment which starts out small scale, conducts an ecosystem assessment, re-evaluates and adapts the experimental design based on what we learn and scientifically validate...

Agreed. And even though I am on the board I do wish the message you present was being made more clear (working on that btw). The submitted proposal itself is designed around exactly what you suggested.

I would love nothing more than to be able to have Dr. Walters come and share his science with the Technical Working Group on Prey Availability when we start meeting/discussing prey availability for Chinook (herring, crab larvae, krill) and Pinniped Predation. These are the next topics the TWG will be meeting to address. Perhaps your group should be pressing DFO to have Dr. Walters participating in the Prey Availability TWG?

Please send me the relevant information Pat, and I WILL pass it forward asap.
We need all the allies we can get. And I do see a "fit" here...

Thanks,
Matt
 
Carl Walters is a smart guy, and not afraid to go against what might be popular belief is if he believes the science is telling him something else. Certainly an excellent overview of the available data, and what conclusions can and can't be drawn from it. A few key takeaways for me were:

1. There is strong correlation between seal predation and mortality. Dr Walters is careful to say it's a correlation, it's certainly suggestive of a causative relationship, but the only way to test that is to do an experiment and actually do some removal.
2. Smolt vulnerability to predation may be exacerbated by water temps, and higher rates of disease or impairment from disease associated with higher temperatures. The smolts may die anyhow, but the only way to know if mortality is from seals or other environmental factors is again, to remove some seals and find out.
3. Seals don't key on Salmon smolts, they prey on them opportunistically, and although its a small proportion of their diet, its a large number of smolts.
4. There are NOT problem animals causing disproportionate problems, at least for smolts. Any seal will eat them if it encounters them.
5. Sea Lions are not a threat to smolts, their migration patterns are in response to herring migrations. If its salmon we potentially want to help, its all about harbour seals.
6. There may be some impact on transient whale populations, but it will be modest, even at 50% reduction rates (of harbour seals).

This presentation has certainly influenced my thinking on this, as I had previously thought some limited removals of "problem" animals might be justified. I now think a wider removal of harbour seals needs to be investigated. I'm sure Dr. Walters could advise on how to conduct an experiment on this, assuming it takes time to be able to establish a viable larger scale hunt, concentrating the harvest in certain areas might yield information on specific rivers in a shorter time frame.
 
4. There are NOT problem animals causing disproportionate problems, at least for smolts. Any seal will eat them if it encounters them.

3. Seals don't key on Salmon smolts, they prey on them opportunistically, and although its a small proportion of their diet, its a large number of smolts.


The reason I personally thought this is every May-August about 200+ seals move into the Fraser, Now this is perfectly timed with the smolts migrating out. So is this migratory behavior then that all seals in all areas do?? These are not problem seals?
 
The reason I personally thought this is every May-August about 200+ seals move into the Fraser, Now this is perfectly timed with the smolts migrating out. So is this migratory behavior then that all seals in all areas do?? These are not problem seals?

I've watched that bit again, he seems to not believe overall that problem seals are not the issue, that there is enough overall predation to have an effect. Those seals you mention are also moving into the river for upstream migrating salmon in the summer, which he isn't addressing in his presentation with respect to seals. I'd agree ones intercepting adults at choke points, natural or man made could be considered problem seals, and might be priority candidates for removal.
 
I understand many here have been patiently waiting for me to get something up in this regard.
I believe the following presentation by Dr. Carl Walters pretty much addresses the vast majority of concerns & and questions I have seen posted here. The seminar is an hour long. It is well worth the watch.
Please, no questions or comments from any that have not watched this in it's entirety as the answers you seek will have largely been addressed within the video:


Any that wish a copy of the related power point presentation feel free to pm and I will send along (I simply do not know how to post that from an internal file).

Cheers,
Nog

Thanks for this.
 
Any chance we were going to get bad news a couple weeks ago from dfo Prior to the new licenses coming out and then this information was brought out, exposing the real culprits behind our salmon stocks, seals, and the Government decided rather than release a bunch of bs, blaming fishermen for the collapse, only to have egg on their faces when the public is made aware of THE TRUTH, they went back behind closed doors to rethink the bs that’s coming? One thing for sure, they have no plan on how to eliminate 10’s of thousands of seals. They likely have no plan on how to eliminate hundreds of seals. But we need a plan, I would rather this done fast and humanely, but hundreds will be killed by angry fishermen, it’s already happening.
 
5. Sea Lions are not a threat to smolts, their migration patterns are in response to herring migrations. If its salmon we potentially want to help, its all about harbour seals.

Sea lions do take smolts, on an opportunistic basis. Doesn't appear to be as heavy an impact as the harbor seal predation.
The exact opposite is true in terms of adult salmon predation however, and there they have a significant impact.

Dr. Walters co-wrote our IFMP, and of course has suggestions on the hunt and focus.

Cheers,
Nog
 
I think there is enough science to ensure this removal should take place but imo the biggest issue here is the need to find a market for these animals; sure hope someone is working on that.
 
Regardless something needs to happen, and we just need to define how much and when. Maybe it can be what both parties want. The most important part of this is that something if anything is done. I am still leaning on the choke point problem areas first.

NGO's are going push back hard on this, so it will be steep fight. We need to work together and be realistic. DFO won't support a mass wide reduction we all know that.

I am hopeful a compromise can be reached. The more it stalls the more nothing will happen.
 
I think there is enough science to ensure this removal should take place but imo the biggest issue here is the need to find a market for these animals; sure hope someone is working on that.

There are several working directly on that, and a LOT of ground has already been covered in this aspect. Markets exist, and are sufficient to provide for more than can adequately be handled at this point.

... NGO's are going push back hard on this, so it will be steep fight.

The more it stalls the more nothing will happen.

The NGO's are chiefly reluctant to go after the FN's. At this point, the plan has been endorsed by over 110 FN groups. They will be the ones to spearhead initial harvests.

DFO's strategy when faced with something new has always been to throw barriers up, repeatedly.
In this case, we have the very best scientific minds working to prevent that (including some of their own who are on-side). They have been put on notice that playing trivial in this matter would be a grievous error on their part. And already, inroads have been established right up through Ottawa. This program will happen, it is simply a matter of getting it right, and the subsequent timing thereof.

Cheers,
Matt
 
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