Preliminary 2018 salmon outlook/Forecast/Management Measures

This should help see where the Fraser River Chinook are being caught and by whom. A lot of finger pointing, but perhaps a few folks should look in the mirror before pointing fingers.

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Thanks for this Searun. Would be interesting to know how last years in river chinook harvest compared to the posted avg given the closed sockeye harvest and heavy focus on chinook? Also would be interesting to see estimates/guesstimates of other “ bubbles” of mortality - SRKW, seals/sea lions, poaching, prespawn mortality, etc.

Certainly hard to dispute cumulative “sport” harvest is a significant piece of the total harvest pie for these chinook stocks.

Cheers!

Ukee
 
I call BS on the the FN mortallity!!
Harrison whites used to run almost 200000 fall fish...then the local bands started drift netting on the Harrison and Fraser confluence for chum. In a couple cycles the run has almost been wiped out.
 
How much confidence is there in the numbers of removals for FN and sports. The only monitored fishery is the commercial fishery.

Also anyone know where to find the numbers for sports caught and released chinook?
 
I call BS on the the FN mortallity!!
Harrison whites used to run almost 200000 fall fish...then the local bands started drift netting on the Harrison and Fraser confluence for chum. In a couple cycles the run has almost been wiped out.

Yeah but I don’t see how we can prove that to our current government or take allocation away from them. Also DFO officers in the area went from 16 down to 4 and I herd they are closing the mission office. That leaves the Chilliwack, langley, steaveston offices to cover an area from the Sunshine Coast to up the Fraser river to Boston bar.

I can’t imagin the poaching situation to get any better . I also think we may find our selfs with mor closures as they don’t have the staff to monitor selective fishery’s.

Also the sport guys in the area are guilty as well snagg chum off their redds in stave. Loading up their trucks with 30 plus black spawned out chum. Have a high use of barbed hooks.

Commercial guys are guilty too 7 of them got busted for not using revial tanks in the chum fishery for steelhead.


Lots of scum out their
 
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How much confidence is there in the numbers of removals for FN and sports. The only monitored fishery is the commercial fishery.

Also anyone know where to find the numbers for sports caught and released chinook?

As one of my good friends who was a long time commercial fisher said..."you can't slide a slider, we might be monitored, but we can certainly find ways to skirt that...ain't hard." One of my other friends who was a Fisheries Officer up north has shared all kinds of day after day violation stories - the same boats/captains. They viewed a violation ticket as simply a cost of doing business. So anyone trying to tell me that the commercial fleet is lily white, I suspect will also try to sell me some excellent swamp land.
 
Just a reminder of the commercial allocation policy before we go pointing fingers.

Commercial Access to Chinook and Coho


Directed commercial harvest of chinook and coho salmon can occur when
abundance permits. When harvestable surpluses are sufficiently high, chinook and
coho salmon will be available in directed commercial fisheries through specific
allocations. For directed commercial fisheries on these species, harvestable
surpluses must be large enough to:

• meet conservation objectives.
• provide priority for First Nation's for food, social and ceremonial requirements
and meet other existing obligations arising through treaty settlements or
agreements.
• allow for a directed recreational fishery based on limits of 2 per day and 4 in
possession for chinook, and 4 per day and 8 in possession for coho.
• still be available in sufficiently large numbers in order to permit a directed
commercial fishery.


Commercial Access to Sockeye, Pink and Chum

The commercial industry historically harvested the vast majority of sockeye, pink
and chum salmon. The commercial industry will be allocated at least 95 per cent of
combined commercial and recreational harvest of each sockeye, pink and chum
salmon species. Up to 5% of the remainder will be available to the recreational
fishery in order to allow them predictable and stable fishing opportunities on
sockeye, pink and chum. It is unlikely that the recreational fishery will reach this
cap in most years. Therefore, any uncaught portion can be harvested by the
commercial fishery. This 95% will be broken out by species.

Allocation Principle 5 - Commercial Allocation

After conservation needs are met, and priority access for First Nations as set
out in Principle 2 is addressed:

• the commercial sector will be allocated at least 95 per cent of
combined commercial and recreational harvest of sockeye, pink and
chum salmon; and,
• the commercial harvest of chinook and coho will occur when
abundance permits.

The harvest of sockeye, pink and chum salmon is the mainstay of the commercial
fishery. The commercial industry harvests the vast majority of these species.
Special consideration for the commercial sector with respect to these species is
appropriate in support of a viable commercial industry.
The commercial harvest of chinook and coho salmon will occur when abundance
permits. When harvestable surpluses are high, chinook and coho salmon will be
available in directed commercial fisheries. When harvestable surpluses are lower,
some chinook and coho may be caught by commercial fisheries on a non-retention
basis to allow them to prosecute their directed fisheries on other salmon species.
This will be subject to the principles of the selective fishing policy.
 
What does the policy say when the numbers are so low that there aren't enough fish left to sustain 76 killer whales? How long do we wait for an effective recovery plan to be implemented? My guess is that will start after the last SRKW is gone as well as any remaining tackle stores and marine dealerships.
 
Yep politicians use fish as currency for their political agenda. Fish is cheap currency in Reconciliation.

Conservation is bad for
business
 
What does the policy say when the numbers are so low that there aren't enough fish left to sustain 76 killer whales? How long do we wait for an effective recovery plan to be implemented? My guess is that will start after the last SRKW is gone as well as any remaining tackle stores and marine dealerships.

You really want to know? it has not been implemented yet, The wild Salmon Policy was suppose to dictate the principal 1 conservation. 18 years later and principle number 1 that was suppose to help DFO make conservation decisions was never implemented. Feel like puking yet?

Allocation Principle 1 - Conservation

Conservation of Pacific salmon stocks is the primary objective and will take
precedence in managing the resource -- conservation will not be compromised
to achieve salmon allocation targets.
Opportunities to harvest salmon allocations by all user groups will be subject to the
primary objective of conservation. To support this conservation objective, salmon
will continue to be allocated for stock assessment purposes that are required to
identify potential harvest levels. In addition, Fisheries and Oceans Canada will
work with all user groups to improve both comprehensiveness and timeliness of
catch data. These data are required to ensure that harvest levels are consistent with
conservation objectives.

It is recognized that a clear definition of conservation is required to operationalize
this element of the allocation policy. To address this need, a separate discussion
paper referred to as the Wild Salmon Policy will be released later this year
. That
document will begin a public dialogue aimed at defining conservation as it applies
to wild salmon and identifying how conservation goals and objectives can be
achieved in practice.

To support the conservation objective, salmon will continue to be set aside for test
fisheries which are required to determine the timing and general health of salmon
stocks, and to identify potential harvest levels.

• Test fishing activities will be conducted when they do not interfere with
achieving conservation objectives.
• At this priority level, the minimum quantity of harvest needed to provide the
required information will be taken in test fisheries.
 
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Recreational Fishermen and Commercial fishermen need to unite.

as this has been secretly going on behind the scene

https://frasersalmon.ca/

"The Fraser Salmon Management Council is a Tier 1 (First Nations-only) governance body currently in negotiations with Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). The goal: to secure a role for First Nations in management decision-making processes over Fraser salmon.

FSMC’s mandate to negotiate comes via Council Resolution from its member nations."

Id recommend reading this as well

https://frasersalmon.ca/2018jan31_fsmc_community-report_final/

Also just FYI

"Some members of the Main Table and Negotiating Team met with Terry Beech, Liberal MP for Burnaby-Seymour, on May 24. Terry is Minister LeBlanc’s Parliamentary Secretary and his eyes and ears on the west coast."
 
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Careful what you insinuate Pat.
No insinuation intended, simply put every group (rec and commercial) has their players. If that were not the case we would not need Fisheries Officers and there would not be charges and fines.
 
Thanks for this Searun. Would be interesting to know how last years in river chinook harvest compared to the posted avg given the closed sockeye harvest and heavy focus on chinook? Also would be interesting to see estimates/guesstimates of other “ bubbles” of mortality - SRKW, seals/sea lions, poaching, prespawn mortality, etc.

Certainly hard to dispute cumulative “sport” harvest is a significant piece of the total harvest pie for these chinook stocks.

Cheers!

Ukee

Yes we do, and no one group can claim they are the "great conservationists" either. I kind of have to call BS when people are trying to sell me some swamp land. Every user needs to take a sober look in the mirror, and be prepared to stop pointing fingers and own up to what we might be able to do together to make a little bit of a difference. A series of smaller sacrifices now, will add up to a difference that perhaps helps avoid a whole world of hurt later.
 
As one of my good friends who was a long time commercial fisher said..."you can't slide a slider, we might be monitored, but we can certainly find ways to skirt that...ain't hard." One of my other friends who was a Fisheries Officer up north has shared all kinds of day after day violation stories - the same boats/captains. They viewed a violation ticket as simply a cost of doing business. So anyone trying to tell me that the commercial fleet is lily white, I suspect will also try to sell me some excellent swamp land.

I fully agree. All fleets have their players. I was just curious how they figure out the mortality for different fleets, where it would be posted, and if possible the reliability of those numbers.
 
I fully agree. All fleets have their players. I was just curious how they figure out the mortality for different fleets, where it would be posted, and if possible the reliability of those numbers.
Do they keep the catch and release numbers for the commercial fleet? Is it verified or an honour system? Just curious.
 
I fully agree. All fleets have their players. I was just curious how they figure out the mortality for different fleets, where it would be posted, and if possible the reliability of those numbers.

Do we really need to debate that salmon stocks are crashing? I love when I see when people ask questions like "reliability of those numbers" because what they are doing is looking for an excuse to place blame on another fishing sector or area.

Perhaps we should just fish in river and not in the ocean. Then we won't have to guess what stocks are getting impacted where and by what user group.

Its time all user groups took cuts to help save at risk stocks. I'd be willing to have 10 chinook annual , 1 day/2 possession and a 65.0mm min size. or a slot limit if necessary/ but within reason

I would be willing to make bigger cuts if all user groups did as well. I also question the wisdom of having a winter fishery where we target small chinook. Perhaps it's time to cut that out and let thoes chinook grow.

I think recreational business would have a fit though
 
I'm always willing to do my part...i'm waiting for the Federal Government to step up, take the lead and present a plan with real objectives, timelines and some generous amounts of man power and cash to make it a success. Just cutting back fishing alone has not worked as Thompson Coho and Fraser Chinook prove. I'm getting real tired of ever increasing bad news each spring. Any person receiving this amount of personal health bad news each spring would have ended it already by committing suicide.
 
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