Sockeye salmon stocks are crashing. Long-lost notebooks saw it coming.

I just read this article too. Very interesting! I would love to walk through DFO offices and just look around. WTF are people doing all day? how do they consistently, for decades, continue to F#$$# up fisheries on both coasts?
 
I strongly disagree with Bob Hooton's simple analysis of the root cause and solutions for salmon declines. Perhaps he doesn't intend for his messaging to sound as if he places the main causes of salmon decline on harvest, but that is how it comes across. I personally subscribe to the notion that ecosystems are inherently complex, and so too are the real reasons for salmon declines. The article actually touches upon it by calling it a crisis rooted in "death by a thousand cuts". IMO failing to understand that leads to misguided attacks with singular focus on one villain or another. The truth is the ecosystems supporting fish are compromised by many many small and large sources. The ecosystem can no longer support the same level of wild salmon as it once did - it's too compromised and there is no turning back the clock. Incredibly simplistic to think a "wild salmon policy" or scaling back hatcheries will lead to wild salmon recovery and abundance. That simply isn't true with the ecosystem in a compromised position it cannot support the once abundant levels of "wild only" salmon stocks.
 
I strongly disagree with Bob Hooton's simple analysis of the root cause and solutions for salmon declines. Perhaps he doesn't intend for his messaging to sound as if he places the main causes of salmon decline on harvest, but that is how it comes across. I personally subscribe to the notion that ecosystems are inherently complex, and so too are the real reasons for salmon declines. The article actually touches upon it by calling it a crisis rooted in "death by a thousand cuts". IMO failing to understand that leads to misguided attacks with singular focus on one villain or another. The truth is the ecosystems supporting fish are compromised by many many small and large sources. The ecosystem can no longer support the same level of wild salmon as it once did - it's too compromised and there is no turning back the clock. Incredibly simplistic to think a "wild salmon policy" or scaling back hatcheries will lead to wild salmon recovery and abundance. That simply isn't true with the ecosystem in a compromised position it cannot support the once abundant levels of "wild only" salmon stocks.
I agree with some of your assertions (that being there has been too much focus on a singular cause) but the assertion that the systems are too compromised doesn't explain how there are more salmon than ever in the pacific. It is just that the salmon are not coming to Canada. As well, the salmon types that have shown the greatest increases (namely chum and pink) are all created by hatchery programs. Not wild at all. So, if the goal is to restore salmon wild runs the causes must be ranked. IMHO, ranching is becoming the biggest culprit for our salmon run declines. Even more bad news is that the Russians, Japanese and Americans are all planning on increasing the amount of ranched salmon.

So, if we start with the premise that if one system shows steep declines and one system show 2.5X harvest levels of the max harvest rate when no ranching enhancement took place, we need to figure out whether the system with 2.5X is doing it better or, if there harvest rates are impacting ours. As you say, they ecosystems are inherently complex but there is a massive overlap between our salmon and the other ranched sources.
 
Exactly, the ocean ranching proponents are not understanding the unanticipated consequences of their actions. The carrying capacity of our shared ocean ecosystem is limited. All stocks will predictably crash once we flood the ocean with more than there is carrying capacity. Dick Beamish has cautioned that for some time. Our approach to harvesting everything as if it lives within a singular vacuum is crazy..herring, krill etc being bottom of food chain being harvested without taking into proper account if we are meeting the food or prey requirements of other species like salmon is a recipe for more ocean ranching disasters that are home grown.
 
Why do the russians care the more they pump out the more they get back. What ocean ranching is showing is that if you get your smolts to the feeding grounds first you win.

Washington, BC and to an extent Southeast Alaska is losing. PST and North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission will have to work it out and that is wayyyyyyyy above my pay grade.
 
Exactly, the ocean ranching proponents are not understanding the unanticipated consequences of their actions. The carrying capacity of our shared ocean ecosystem is limited. All stocks will predictably crash once we flood the ocean with more than there is carrying capacity. Dick Beamish has cautioned that for some time. Our approach to harvesting everything as if it lives within a singular vacuum is crazy..herring, krill etc being bottom of food chain being harvested without taking into proper account if we are meeting the food or prey requirements of other species like salmon is a recipe for more ocean ranching disasters that are home grown.
I think we are on exactly the same page.... Once the system crashes, no coming back - look at that thriving cod fishery...
 
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