Worst Sockeye return in 100 years

But let that special group keep netting ........ Go figure. Pathetic management from head of Government down.

Shame Shame on them all.
 
I dont know why people are surprised. The feds put nothing into it and the river systems are being polluted and deregulated by the province and fed. Poor marine conditions and poor habitat protection are screwing these runs across BC. This is everywhere and people need to get head out of sand. It is not 100 percent water temps and climate change.
 
I dont know why people are surprised. The feds put nothing into it and the river systems are being polluted and deregulated by the province and fed. Poor marine conditions and poor habitat protection are screwing these runs across BC. This is everywhere and people need to get head out of sand. It is not 100 percent water temps and climate change.


maybe they are just late?
 
But but we are only going to take a few of these fish for a ceremonial dinner or two, honest, its not about us really, it is about saving the fish!
 
Agent. Last year Coho health/size was one of the poorest years I have seen off Sooke and this year when we are apparently having an extremely poor Sockeye run, we are having a really strong Coho year with good numbers this summer and more importantly very large average size so far with lots of fish in the 9 t0 15 lb range including the hatchery marked fish. Last year those fish would have been 5 or 6 lbers and the bigger expected northern type Coho have not started to turn up yet in numbers ( the 10 to 20 lbers in Sept and Oct). Somewhere ocean conditions for these Coho must be good and they are having a great year yet Sockeye are doing very poorly and they seem to be blaming among other things water warming. I am wondering why Sockeye are doing so poorly and Coho in JDF are doing so well this year.
 
Excellent observations, Rockfish. Pleasure having your input on this forum.

Shooting from the hip - commonly sockeye and pinks are competitors for plankton. Big pink run = smaller and less sockeye. Pinks are a 2YO fish, sockeye 3-6 (usually 4) YO. 2 YO juvie coho often prey on YoY juvie pinks. Lotsa pinks = less sockeye + more coho. Simplistic I know. But could be a factor...
 
If it is warm water in the Fraser as the writer suggests where are all the dead sockeye floating back down the river?
Fraser is pretty big and silty, but I would guess some are eaten by Sturgeon and the rest just become part of the eco-system.
 
If it is warm water in the Fraser as the writer suggests where are all the dead sockeye floating back down the river?
That is a very good question. It's well documented that these extreme conditions, even a few degrees higher than normal, can be detrimental. We have had extreme conditions in the Fraser in recent years - enough to close the Fraser to fishing but the enroute mortality and pre spawn activity evidence is not really apparent on a broad scale. Not sure what to say other than Sockeye may be much more strategic in their migration than current view. In my opinion, what helped that one year of extreme temperatures was the removal of nets from the water. Reduced stress and injury from navigating past nets could have helped. Reynolds is correct in a sense but your question is a good one. For this year, the warm water is a concern for those in the Fraser now, but as the PSC has indicated the fish are not showing up despite these Fraser conditions. The 2012 Fraser Sockeye brood had very poor spawning success so when you combine that with a typically low part on the cycle with poor marine conditions (impacts appear not so clear cut though) and poor in-river migratory conditions it is not a good combination.
 
Fraser is pretty big and silty, but I would guess some are eaten by Sturgeon and the rest just become part of the eco-system.
True to a point, but all that evidence cannot just go unnoticed. Inseason management adjustments add Sockeye so that spawning escapement targets can be met. The adjustments taken in consideration that a certain proportion of the run will die enroute. The higher the management adjustments - the more enroute mortality is predicted and the more fish added to ensure spawning escapement targets are met. As I said before, it's well documented that only a degree or two higher than normal can negatively impact Sockeye upstream migrants. However, those adjustments are based on few extreme migratory years and can have error associated with them.
 
If it is warm water in the Fraser as the writer suggests where are all the dead sockeye floating back down the river?
Good question, Terrin. Although I may/may not agree with the prof on all of his assertions - as far as your question - rarely do fish float when they die - mostly they stay sunk and at the bottom. If they get a chance to rot at the bottom (and not get eaten by sturgeon as described) - that decomposition can release gas - and sometimes that gas can sometimes build-up in inside cavities enough to float them - but as a matter of percentages - isn't a high number.
 
Good question, Terrin. Although I may/may not agree with the prof on all of his assertions - as far as your question - rarely do fish float when they die - mostly they stay sunk and at the bottom. If they get a chance to rot at the bottom (and not get eaten by sturgeon as described) - that decomposition can release gas - and sometimes that gas can sometimes build-up in inside cavities enough to float them - but as a matter of percentages - isn't a high number.

Here is a bit more information regarding this ...

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1577/M06-098.1?journalCode=ujfm20
 
I think we can all hope that the current LaNina flow which was declared in June will continue for a few years. Patterns traditionally have been for several years of LaNina currents (cold water flow North) to follow the El Nino currents we have experienced over the past several years. This should help with plankton production which starts the food chain for all of the Pacific Salmonids.

After the several years of great returns (most of which were from brood years of La Nina currents), we should expect that the next couple of years after this one will be less than stellar.
 
Extreme conditions? That's a bit exaggerative Shuswap. In fact, the Lower Fraser has only exceeded 20C about a third of the days in August so far. Once you move up to the mid-Fraser it has only exceeded 20C for a part of the day on 8 days in August and by the time you reach Prince George the Fraser has only exceeded 18c a couple of days. So, while not ideal and there will be some migration mortality, this year's conditions are far from extreme and are in fact much better than conditions in recent years when we've seen good migration and spawning success despite high Fraser temps.

Also want to point out that while salmonid health, fitness and survival in water 20C and warmer is well documented (i.e. it is not ideal, and much warmer than 20C for extended exposure can be fatal), the relationship between lower fraser temps and migration/spawning success is not fully understood at this time and the management adjustments that are applied are conservative best guesses.

Cheers!

Ukee
 
It's not all warm water. This needs a proper scientific study over time before we blab on every paper. You also need to look at the pollution in fraser. I know people like to keep dodging that but it's true. Without protections in place I would bet there are several issues we don't know about. You also need to look at the habitat itself. Like I said I think it's crazy to just say it's warm water. Why are other systems doing ok then? There is more going on. Fact remains Dfo needs to get there butt in gear and start working on this or fish will be wiped out.
 
I think in order to apportion a large part of the problem to instream temperatures - the fish have to show-up in the river to begin with. If the test fisheries aren't recording the numbers at the mouth of the river - then the temperatures might be affecting another life history stage - which might be either in the ocean - or on the way from eggs to smolts much earlier. This was the conversation that I found lacking in that news release.
 
Extreme conditions? That's a bit exaggerative Shuswap. In fact, the Lower Fraser has only exceeded 20C about a third of the days in August so far. Once you move up to the mid-Fraser it has only exceeded 20C for a part of the day on 8 days in August and by the time you reach Prince George the Fraser has only exceeded 18c a couple of days. So, while not ideal and there will be some migration mortality, this year's conditions are far from extreme and are in fact much better than conditions in recent years when we've seen good migration and spawning success despite high Fraser temps.

Also want to point out that while salmonid health, fitness and survival in water 20C and warmer is well documented (i.e. it is not ideal, and much warmer than 20C for extended exposure can be fatal), the relationship between lower fraser temps and migration/spawning success is not fully understood at this time and the management adjustments that are applied are conservative best guesses.

Cheers!

Ukee
Sorry I didn't mean that this year was "extreme". I'm not predicting massive mortality because of these conditions (which includes discharge). I was trying to point out that even a few degrees higher than average can have negative impacts on migration performance and cause physiological stress. On a year like this year, even those conditions are not ideal considering what the 2012 brood was like and what their recruits experienced in the marine environment. It's another factor whether we believe or not those impacts are obvious. On a year like this, every one counts.

I already indicated that despite extreme conditions in recent years which closed fisheries (including test fisheries), enroute mortality and pre-spawn activity was not as apparent on a broad scale as well as the error with management adjustments (based on just a few years) so I'm unsure about what you are trying to say different here.
 
I think in order to apportion a large part of the problem to instream temperatures - the fish have to show-up in the river to begin with. If the test fisheries aren't recording the numbers at the mouth of the river - then the temperatures might be affecting another life history stage - which might be either in the ocean - or on the way from eggs to smolts much earlier. This was the conversation that I found lacking in that news release.
Exactly. The numbers coming from the PSC show that the predicted preseason numbers are not materializing. However, considering that only a few degrees can impact migrantory performance, it's important to make sure that what enters the Fraser River (which is likely going to be well below forecast) has a good chance making it to the spawning grounds.

Although the "blob" has technically broken up near the surface it still remains at depth. This could have impacts to upwelling of nutrients to the surface which feed zooplankton, but the impacts to what we saw last year and now this year are still being debated. Last season, there were so many inconsistencies across species and stocks that it was not so simple to point fingers at the "blob".
 
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