Preliminary 2018 salmon outlook/Forecast/Management Measures

First Nations have a right the same as the rest of us. They too are on board for restrictions . Once the slipper skippers and the commercial fleets stop raping our coast. They have made it clear they will follow suit. You pull your nets they will pull there nets.Its a two way street.
The federal government messed it up when they supported full out commercial net fishing .
 
First Nations have a right the same as the rest of us. They too are on board for restrictions . Once the slipper skippers and the commercial fleets stop raping our coast. They have made it clear they will follow suit. You pull your nets they will pull there nets.Its a two way street.
The federal government messed it up when they supported full out commercial net fishing .
It's obvious that commercial fishing is playing a huge role too. But your argument of "we will when they do" is just silly. How about leading by example. And most importantly how about not taking the last of what survived the slaughter. Here's an idea, since the FN clearly dont enjoy the "sport" in fishing any longer, evident by the shopping cart blockades, why don't the commercial guys just ship them a percentage and be done with it. I mean obvioulsy the "leaders" of those groups would have to somehow help their peole by not just selling it all for new trucks.

GOOOOOOOD! :mad:
 
Wow the brushes just keep getting broader on here. This is what I hear from the last two threads. Blame. 1st we blame commercials. Then we blame FN . Then we blame everyone else. Here is what is going to happen we are going to spend precious time, and stress talking like that. At same time the government again is going to hand out little money for salmon again, and try and look like a hero like they did something.

Get mad at the government. They are the ones that did not react years ago. Look at our salmon enhancement efforts. Don't you think it is bizarre that nearly 90% of the volunteers are all us? DFO ( I am talking Ottawa here) took advantage of that. Our community essentially kept the salmon going for years, and still do.

What did your savior Harper do? He completely wiped all of the power of DFO Pacific and Environment Canada officers to protect these spawning grounds. This was done so Christy Clark could appease to industry to make it easier to work along your local streams and rivers. Don't thing so? Well it was happening all the time over last 10 years across island and mainland. A lot of examples of habitat compromised, and concerns ignored.

Look at the salmon stamp. I mean come on feds stealing money out of us all for years, and then we need to ask for it back?

It is combination of the Provincial and Federal governments that got us here. We need the salmon enhancement addressed, and we really need to look at the predator issue.

As for Fraser River. Look at it? Pollution city. Industrial sites all long it. LOL who is monitoring them the joke MOE of BC under the joke of the professional reliance model, so government isn't accountable at all? Fix the habitat and protect the river and they will come. Protect the waterways with proper protection so that industrial companies get the message the spawning areas are important.

Sorry I just have a different view point on it. We should be very concerned whales don't have food. Don't let government deflect from taking responsibility on salmon enhancement and protections. This current government seems to making lots of decisions that really aren't addressing the main concern which is more fish. Fraser River is where it is because of government mismanagement not only nets, and also environmental changes in the ecosystem. I wouldn't doubt there is something with reconciliation behind the politics. Don't really know, but its not going to make any difference if there isn't any fish coming into the river.

I am more mad that the government seems to be using us as little tool to deflect on not doing what is right. They all need to stop pissing money away, and protect and enhance these fish. You can move around what we get, do the reconciliation dance for FN, and appease commercials but its not going to change any outcome. Sorry to go on I just hate what all these restrictions are doing with our group. Blaming isn't going to get us anywhere.


Just my rant....
 
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If JT wants to buy out some commercial allocation, and so long as they are fairly compensated, feel free to put it in the hands of FN to create economic opportunity for their communities. All good from my point of view, but not so fast when it comes to recreational opportunities.

FYI: The government has been shaving substantial numbers off the commercial troll allocation for years now (without compensation of course) and out & out giving that to FN interests. Combine that with also buying them both licenses and boats, and what used to be a rather small influence has blossomed into a very large one. And that is increasing every single season. Although afforded scheduled openings, this sector seems to have a pretty damn tough time staying within boundaries (as in commonplace ignoring of that) timing and reporting actual harvest numbers. To convolute the matter, some FN's are also Area G trollers, and switch hats at their own convenience capitalizing on whichever fishery is most lucrative at the moment (aka Double Dipping). There is no end in sight for this, as DFO REFUSES to provide anything beyond lip service in the way of enforcement towards this group that they themselves have created.

That same government is slowly becoming aware that just about all the blood that can be squeezed from that rock has been done so without facing direct legal action. Thus they are indeed looking at other sources to keep the "reconciliation" train going. And this time around, you happen to be it.

I don't blame the FN's - anyone else being afforded this luxury would likely jump at it too.
I do agree with much of what SpringVelocity said above: Blame the government. Hold their damn feet to the fire. If we don't, in a rather short matter of time, FN's will be the ONLY sector out there fishing at all...

Nog
 
I don't think anyone can fault FN. As you said, it's the beast the government has created... But to believe the government is going to do anything meaningful to reign it in is beyond wishful thinking. Better to start pushing for enhancement to feed the beast AND the rec sector (ie. Hatcheries, hatcheries and more hatcheries).
 
SpringVelocity; best post I have ever seen on this site. You all need to go to the General forum & look at the 1984 state of fishing thread & follow the links. Pacific region DFO was saying the Chinook were in crisis & we needed to stop commercial fishing of mixed stocks back in 1984.

As a US sport fisher who has been fishing BC exclusively since 1978, BC was on the road to eliminating commercial Salmon fishing in southern BC in the mid 1980's.
From a political/fisheries management perspective, things seem to start sliding downhill in the mid 90's or so; back in the heyday the Robertson Creek hatchery was putting out 100 million Chinook smolts per year. The RC hatchery was because the Purse Seiners made the wild Chinook runs mostly extinct via by-catch when fishing other species (probably Sockeyes). Looks like the Purse Seiners wipe-out most other runs as well.

That said, unless you would rather spend your time blaming whatever party was/is in power, let's move on & all be part of the solution.

FYI I do highly suspect that at some level DFO has been & still is in bed with the Commercial fishing industry. I include FN's with the Commercials as they use the same/similar gear & tactics. Part of the solution may be exposing DFO, and therefore the referenced historical info (state of Salmon 1984) is useful.

Restriction on Salmon sport fishing have been around since the 80's. The majority of these restrictions have worked & the restrictions have been lifted.
 
The FN bias in fish allocation by the DFO can’t be a surprise after all the success they have had in the courts. The nation in our area won a huge ruling in Supreme Court 2 years ago for the right to openly fish commercially, not just for food which I support. They have a full on Halibut quota so now we have long lines right in the close areas we fish and a fleet of trollers that we have to dodge when playing fish.

Add to this the ridiculous blatant Sockeye machine in Port Alberni coupled with wanton harvest of the allegedly endangered Fraser Chinooks it is apparent to me that we are sucking the hind teat and unless we stand up with a United front it will get worse.
 
From my point of view this is a government problem. We are run by eastern Canada and their ignorance regarding proper management of our fisheries. The cod fishery back there is a classic example of managing into extinction

How did they get there? By a culture within DFO to support a commercial fishery at any cost. By allowing commercial fisheries for food web species. When you fish herring, krill and crab extensively the base food chain that salmon depend upon is comprised. Over time you set in motion a slow degradation of the food web that leads to breaking down the base fabric of the ecosystem

DFO then responds with increasing hatchery production to offset those losses which works for a time. It works until the pinniped population which has been allowed to increase eventually over takes the efforts to produce extra hatchery fish. Scroll forward a few years and the hatchery programs begin to fail because there is no selection program aimed at picking the largest and strongest returning fish, instead we mix up the gene pool into a homogeneous population of increasingly smaller fish. Fish that are less fecund and producing smaller and smaller less robust fish.

That gets us to the predicament faced today.

There is only one way back from extinction. A well funded diverse recovery strategy that addresses the many issues impacting salmon. Increase production of quality fish, decrease predation, increase the food available within the food web, reduce pollution, enhance habitat, and expand control over commercial fisheries to reduce exploitation of weak stocks.
 
I'm interested that the discussion on "why" we have a problem in the fishery is focussed so strongly on "who" has been overfishing. As noted in comments above, I think we have a long history of rape and pillage of the fishery in this part of the world and the fishing industry is a huge political hot potato for whatever party happens to be in power (if you haven't already, I highly recommend a read of Bluebacks and Silver Brights: A Lifetime in the BC Fisheries From Bounty to Plunder). However, am I the only one who walks beside near dry rivers in summer that in living memory supported runs of many species of salmon but now are "dead" or reads the reports about river water levels and temperatures as well as the effects of warmer oceans and the impacts that is having on escapement and survival with a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach? I was especially struck by the comment in the DFO report at the head of this thread of the significant decline in fecundity of spawners. IMO. that, together with poor escapement and survival should have us all up in arms. For us, the terminal fishery is the visible link in the chain, hence the rush to blame the fishing industry and DFO, but I think the issue runs much deeper. We can rant all we want, but trying to turn this into a Federal or Provincial liberal or conservative issue, or a first nations issue is missing the point. The Fish are not laying as many eggs and those they do lay are not surviving. Unless, and until, we find a way to address that problem, everything else is somewhat moot as the fish will disappear while we all look for a human scapegoat who is a politician or fisherman. Perhaps we should be more focussed on why our rivers and oceans are unable to provide a habitat conducive to survival?
 
Well put rowswell.
There are also many coastal cold water streams not lacking water volume equally vacancy of life. There is scientific explanation for this all from water quality samples and the study in effects of acidic deposition. I have been attempting to expose this but have limited success. There is endless finger pointing here but I am confident it is mostly natural and none of the accused users of the resources are to blame.
I have many past posts and started threads on the topic you may find interesting if you search my historic posts.
From my research, invertebrate sampling and water quality testing it appears the situation is improving. It keeps me hopeful anyway.
 
Well put rowswell.
There are also many coastal cold water streams not lacking water volume equally vacancy of life. There is scientific explanation for this all from water quality samples and the study in effects of acidic deposition. I have been attempting to expose this but have limited success. There is endless finger pointing here but I am confident it is mostly natural and none of the accused users of the resources are to blame.
I have many past posts and started threads on the topic you may find interesting if you search my historic posts.
From my research, invertebrate sampling and water quality testing it appears the situation is improving. It keeps me hopeful anyway.

With respect, I'm unconvinced that the problem rests solely within acidification of rivers. We have lots of very good evidence of large healthy smolts out-migrating into the ocean, only to suffer very high ocean mortality.

Acidification cannot be the casual factor of decline there.

So the problem is multi-faceted - in other words salmon are dying the death of a thousand cuts. Little bit related to habitat (including acidification), and a little bit from not enough food in the food web to feed them when they are in the near estuary ocean where they are most vulnerable, ...and a lot to do with predation from harbour seals, and of course fishing exploitation. Its a complex set of problems, each with their equally complex solutions. But if we don't do something fairly significant soon, there will be nothing left.

Chinook started this strong down cycle in a much more abundant state than steelhead, but are now following precisely the same pattern of decline. Now when you look at steelhead they are almost extinct everywhere, and in rivers where there is NO commercial fishing. Further, in river systems like the Keogh River (an indicator study stream) where we know precisely how many steelhead out-migrated they have disappeared into the abyss....how is that related to acidification? It is not. It has something to do with "ocean survival"...ergo, either predation or lack of food to sustain Chinook and Steelhead as they first out-migrate into the ocean and starve to death.

Could it be that all our BS is just that? BS...because we focus on our pet theories and issues, but fail to step back and look at an ecosystem wide problem and set of solutions to match those problems. Fish live in complex interdependent relationships within a diverse ecosystem. Humans tend to see problems in simplistic singular direction problems because we are most comfortable when we can attach a tag or label to something. That is how we experience and make sense of our world - by attaching labels, not by stepping back to try to make sense of complexity - little wonder we have some difficulty "managing" wildlife that depend on complex ecosystems.

My 2 cents.
 
I believe 100% with what you just said.
Acid deposition doesn’t just effect freshwater. Is all eventually flows to the ocean and continues to cause effects there too. 70 % of the earth is covered by oceans where acid deposition also has fallen just like on land. There are also many volcanic vents potentially acidifying and poisoning the ocean too. All I am saying is it is all natural. Something we have no power over. Understanding it and reacting appropriately and as effectively as possible is the best we can do. The earth has gone thru many changing temperature and chemical regimes for a long time. Unfortunately it does not discriminate what life lives or dies off in the prosesses. A glimmer of hope is the improvements I have been witnessing in the rain ph, freshwater quality and stream ecology. The oceanic conditions and food web dynamics there are a whole other factor.
I feel more effort to understand and improve food web structure in freshwater is the best chance of creating more fish for all user groups as the ocean is far too large to treat.
 
I forgot to mention. Steelhead are not destitute in all streams. There are a few rare streams with reasonable abundance still. So there could be something learned from comparing these streams chemistry and ecology with the ones not so productive as they all share the same ocean.
 
Would like to know the harbour seal populations at the estuaries where those rivers are, and how healthy the ocean food web is.
 
One of those streams is s Nootum river in Burke channel. There is sometimes over twenty seals visible at one time. It is also a great crab estuary. The stream also seemed to retain its resident trout population. Another near by central coast stream that used to hold many more steelhead is the Nekite river. In the early 1990,s I used to catch 25 steelhead per day there. We also would catch lots of big resident trout. I have a picture of an eight pound resident from the earlier visits. Crabbing was unreal with up to 15 monster keepers in one hour soak. Mega of seals there too.
Over the years the Nekite river lost its productivity for everything. Steelhead, crabs and trout all seemed to vanish. The stream got the common scoured look with no algae on the stones. An average visit turned into half a dozen steelhead or less in two days of fishing and zero crabs. Interestingly during the same era the Nootum river held its populations of trout, steelhead and crab. Nootum also kept its green algae and stain rock appearance. Nootum is a much smaller stream with far less available habitat but now is much more productive by volume than Nekite. The geology and buffering abilities of these watersheds are different and I believe this is why the productivity variable is so great. Both streams have no fish farms and the Nootum is more heavily logged.
As mentioned before it is the movements of heavy metals and how they precipitat and dissolves in streams and estuaries is where my curiosity is. Something not studied in the Keogh project is this effect and may explain compromised food web or low survival rates in near stream marine areas. Chemistry is complex and expensive to study and why it is so rarely monitored.
 
I don’t meant to disagree with anyone here. My life of employment and hobbies in the field have given me decades of observations to ponder over. So far the science of how chemistry changes effects ecology still fits the best in why the changes I have been witnessing.
 
Draft IFMP – Key Changes

See attached

Chinook Fishery Measures

Discussion:
• Given poor prospects for Spring and Summer 52 chinook, for the 2018 season do you support:
• i) a cautious approach in place for the duration of the season; or,
• Ii) continue to use an inseason update and zoned approach?

With respect to 2018 fishery planning, the Department will be consulting on additional fishery measures to address conservation concerns for specified chinook populations Input will be sought from First Nations and stakeholders on how to design specific fishery management measures to achieve the required reductions.
• Is there additional technical information required to support discussions?
• Do you have suggestions on potential chinook management actions that should be considered?
 

Attachments

  • Draft IFMP - Key Changes - IHPC - Mar. 8%2c 2018 - final.pdf
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As promised see attached for proposed measures to protect Fraser River Chinook. There is a typo in the date!

Additional Conservation Measures for BC Chinook Salmon Additional fishery management measures are proposed for 2018 fisheries to address conservation concerns for many BC Chinook Salmon populations. The requirement for additional actions is based on:

  • Evidence of a regional pattern of reduced stock productivity related to reduced marine survival, younger age-at-maturity, reduced size at age and reduced fecundity across many B.C. Chinook salmon stocks. This pattern is affecting many Southeast Alaska, Washington and Oregon Chinook Salmon populations as well.
  • Expectations for continued reduced productivity of Chinook Salmon populations given many chinook age-classes returning in 2018 were exposed to affects from the warm Pacific ocean “blob” and El Nino of 2016 and other anomalous ocean conditions which suggest changes in the marine food web impacts on the marine survival of Pacific salmon. The outlook for 2018 does not show signs of improvement for many stocks, based on juvenile salmon and oceanographic surveys conducted in 2017.
  • Where information is available, pre-season forecasts are for well-below average abundance of Chinook salmon, in many cases below levels required to achieve minimum spawning escapement targets.
  • Management and conservation measures implemented to date have not been sufficient to rebuild many chinook populations.
  • Coast-wide declines and below-average escapement among many British Columbia Chinook Salmon populations have been observed in recent years (particularly 2016 and 2017); see Figure 1 and Table 1.
Proposed 2018 Fishery Management Approach: To address conservation concerns for the 2018 season, DFO is proposing a precautionary reduction in exploitation rates (in the range of 25% to 35%) for specific chinook stocks of concern to align exploitation rates with current stock productivity, support conservation and promote rebuilding. Page 7 These additional reductions are planned to address conservation concerns for Nass River, Skeena River and many small wild chinook populations in Northern BC; and, all Fraser River chinook populations (including Spring 42, Spring 52, Summer 52, Summer 41 and Fall 41) in Southern BC. Vancouver Island chinook populations that are at low abundance but have shown recent signs of rebuilding are also expected to benefit from fishery measures to address stocks of concern. The implementation of specific fishery management measures will be consistent with the Salmon Allocation Policy that assigns the highest priority to conservation, followed by First Nation access to Chinook salmon for food, social, ceremonial and Treaty obligations.
 

Attachments

  • Fraser chinook conservation measures.pdf
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It sucks, but if it's in the name of conservation I'm willing to do my part. I only hope it's not so painful a guy can't bring a couple fish home to cherish during the winter months. But when it comes down to it, the trill of the catch & screaming of the reel is the reason most of us do it.

But honestly, our fish need a chance to recover & they are resilient,,proving they have the right conditions.

(Of course we all hope to see the same management efforts done at the rivers..)
 
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