I mixed dilbit up with condensate in my post but raw Bitumen is shipped by rail see here https://rbnenergy.com/crude-loves-rocknrail-bitumen-by-rail-part-2 and also you never answered my question regarding the Yanks getting our Bitumen for less if we refine it here first. Is that too Loonie of a question?
Kinder Morgan goes rogue, proving it can’t be trusted
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triplenickel
Well-Known Member
Our potential customers have excess refining capacity, they don't want to pay someone else to do it. Canada isn't the only exporter on the globe, we can stomp our feet all day long and shut down everything but it will be supplied one way or another as long as there's a market. Which btw is still growing.
But if they have no Bitumen then I would say they have no choice. Are the Americans exporting their Balken Crude to someone else to refine?
ILHG
Crew Member
Yes the Americans are exporting the Baker crude because most of the refinery capacity is designed for heavy crude. They have a flood of domestic oil that they can process. There are some agreements in place where they swap oil with country's from South America & Mexico. Where those country's have the opposite problem.
The problem with building a refinery is it cost tens of billions of dollars to build. No private money wants to build it because the pay outs are so long & not to many foreign investors are that keen in investing in Canada anymore.
In Alberta the government even went partners with CNRL on a upgrader and they just finished. It's way behind schedule & way over budget.
ILHG
Crew Member
Petronas, is starting its exit from Canada as expected. Another year they will be gone.
http://boereport.com/2017/10/04/malaysias-petronas-puts-some-canadian-assets-up-for-sale-adviser-2/
http://boereport.com/2017/10/04/malaysias-petronas-puts-some-canadian-assets-up-for-sale-adviser-2/
Apparently not in Japan and they too are shutting refineries down instead of stomping their feet in denial. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Japan-s-leading-oil-refiners-to-cut-capacity-10. The whole concept of this pipeline is foolish and there will be no demand for its output in the not to distant future. The risk to our future Generations in environmental damage is not worth it.
triplenickel
Well-Known Member
I thought we were talking about Canada's export issues not Japans consumption. Why the change of subject? lol . Here's some more info on Japan if that's what interests you. Anyways, not gonna bicker with you but you asked why export raws, I gave you an answer. Have fun.
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ILHG
Crew Member
I thought we were talking about Canada's export issues not Japans consumption. Why the change of subject? lol . Here's some more info on Japan if that's what interests you. Anyways, not gonna bicker with you but you asked why export raws, I gave you an answer. Have fun.
That increase in NG moving away from coal is a nice sign. That's much cleaner source & switch from nuclear.
Boy world NG demand is climbing.
triplenickel
Well-Known Member
I said I wouldn't bicker but I can agree. I think you nailed it, we should base our energy policy decisions on Japan. Look at that LNG go.......
GLG
Well-Known Member
You're not bringing anything to the conversation except your ill informed views that you may have gotten by listening to other ill informed pundits. I chose to look at the facts from credible sources and try to form a balanced opinion based on that. For the record I have found some credible sources to try and answer the question of what will the price of Dilbit be and what the price of WCS if this pipeline goes through. Here is a link that You and others may want to look at so that if want to have on informed conversation then it can be made based on facts and not something you read from pundits with an axe to grind. If you don't want to read it then the short answer is $2 a barrel increase.
https://docs2.neb-one.gc.ca/ll-eng/...er_2015_-_A4T6E8.pdf?nodeid=2825856&vernum=-2
ILHG
Crew Member
Good to see folks actually looking for info. When it comes to the marketing side of things it's a tough one & always changing environment. It all comes down to sales contracts. Canada has a ton of conventional light production as well & that will have a smaller $/bbl to gain than WCS..
Even if it was only a $2/bbl increase that's ~ $1.5 - 2 million dollars/d more than what we get right now. That's over a $billion annually. (Over a billion/yr more every year the Yanks have to pay for the same oil) that's why there is a large funded lobby campaign against it.
However I can assure you we get even more that $2 more. The owner of the oil both government & corporate has to also pay transportation to get the oil to market. That comes off the bottom line. While I don't know the exact cost to transport by rail, I am sure it's at least $4-5/bbl minimum.
That there is another American owned multi billion $/yr busseniss that is lobbying hard against Canadian pipelines.
There is a company I know of who sells WCS grade oil on the world market for North Sea Brent. They are Canadian company called Bamkers petroleum. I have had many beer with the former CEO and discussed that very thing.
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nicnat
Well-Known Member
http://business.financialpost.com/c...pping-oil-by-rail-fraser-institute-study-says older but holds true
the cost to ship oil by rail is about $15- $18 per barrel whereas to ship by pipeline is $7-10 per barrel so regardless of what they get for their product there is significant savings in expanding some pipelines.
http://business.financialpost.com/c...ume-rail-shipments-as-pipelines-fill-up-again
the cost to ship oil by rail is about $15- $18 per barrel whereas to ship by pipeline is $7-10 per barrel so regardless of what they get for their product there is significant savings in expanding some pipelines.
http://business.financialpost.com/c...ume-rail-shipments-as-pipelines-fill-up-again
GLG
Well-Known Member
That's fine you can think what you like but for me I'll go with the report that Kinder Morgan submitted to NEB on the forecast of Bitumen and WCS prices with the completion of TransMountain. What could possible go wrong when you have the "best minds at the bar" on the case.....
https://apps.neb-one.gc.ca/REGDOCS/Item/View/2969867
GLG
Well-Known Member
Here let me fix that for you.....
I said I wouldn't bicker but I can agree. I think you nailed it, we should base our energy policy decisions on Qatar. Look at that LNG go.......
Qatar Uses Saudi Strategy To Conquer LNG Markets
......
Last winter, at an LNG conference in Sydney, Australia, LNG producing countries and companies were careful not to concentrate on the potential lifting of a moratorium in natural gas drilling in Qatar’s North Dome. However, that concern was in the back of everyone’s mind. Qatar is the almighty ruler over the LNG industry and it can make or break all potential new projects coming online. Qatar is the lowest cost producer over all other producers because of its excellent project execution, existing infrastructure, and high co-production of condensate (ultra-light oil) and LPGs (propane and butane).
Qatar’s Saudi Strategy
The news that Qatar would increase natural gas production by 30 percent in 2022-2024 was devastating to the industry and put all new LNG projects at a disadvantage.
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Qatar is proceeding to take a page out of Saudi Arabia’s strategy to draw out the high-cost producers through production ramp up. The only difference is, the LNG market is not as dynamic as the oil market and Qatar’s policy changes to North Dome production increases have long-lasting consequences for the LNG market.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Qatar-Uses-Saudi-Strategy-To-Conquer-LNG-Markets.html
Official complaint lodged against Trans Mountain biologist over unauthorized river work
Larry Pynn
Published on: October 17, 2017
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-...untain-biologist-over-unauthorized-river-work
Larry Pynn Published on: October 17, 2017
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-...untain-biologist-over-unauthorized-river-work
bigdogeh
Well-Known Member
Official complaint lodged against Trans Mountain biologist over unauthorized river work
Published on: October 17, 2017
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-...untain-biologist-over-unauthorized-river-work
The last lines of the article... what a novel concept the previous government created...yup, no conflict of interest there.
"The complaint comes on the heels of the provincial NDP government announcing in August it is reviewing the system of professional reliance created under the former Liberal government.
Under the controversial system, the government, rather than use its own experts, relies in large part on the advice of professionals such as biologists and foresters employed by companies seeking project approvals."
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