2014 IPHC Interim Meeting

[SerengetiGuide]

Listened to webinar today. Here are a couple presentations to look at:

http://www.iphc.int/meetings/2013im/presentations/FisheryreviewIM2013.pdf

http://www.iphc.int/meetings/2013im/presentations/ApportionmentIM2013.pdf

They want us around 4.98 mill lbs FCEY, compared to our 7.04 mill lbs this year, although last year what they suggested at this time was 4.5 mill lbs, so that is up compared to last year what they were recommending.

Another very interesting point was we, as the rec sector alone, left 250,000lbs of halibut in the water this year according to the 2nd link.

Shall see how she goes, but hopefully our guys can battle for similar TAC as this year. Also listened to difference in two models, very confusing but think I may of got gyst of it. Main thing it seemed was newer model they feel has much less risk involved especially in regards to the PDO and when it will turn positive.

 

[UkeeDreamin]

My understanding was that last years 4.5 mill TAC proposal was based on the new model and that the Canadian contingent successfully argued that it was untested and overly conservative and thus the 7 mill Canada was allocated was based on the old model. Is that your understanding from the Day 1 discussions Serengeti? Also, have there been discussions on any retro analysis' of the new model or a comparison of the new and old models based on last years' catch and abundance data? Curious to see what transpires this year but gotta think adoption of the new model can't be put off for ever and it definitely appears to be way more conservative, which will mean reduced TACs. One last question for now, what kind of info was presented on the PDO and it's impact on halibut biomass - specifically where are we at in the cycle and are things expected to improve on a more halibut friendly cycle? Sorry for being lazy, I'll review the IPHC material when I get the chance.

Ukee

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Here is another link that will help you as well Ukee

http://www.iphc.int/meetings/2013im/presentations/AssessmentIM2013.pdf

From my understanding the PDO is in a negative cycle, as shown on a graph in above link, and the guy talking (IPHC scientist I assume) was saying they have no idea if it will last another 5 or 15 years, its very variable. But it seemed obvious he was saying the negative cycle is poor for halibut stocks.

Correct on how we got the 7mill last year. This year, in above link as well, the IPHC seems to really push that there is no restrospective bias in the new model, which from what i gathered (i'm no scientist) but that is what the complaint was last year, so I'm not sure they will be able to get them to cave as easily. With that being said, the trends in 2B and 2C are positive (2B more so than 2C even), compared to negative everywhere else...plus 250k under this year, I can see a good argument being made for 2B to have higher levels relative to other areas...maybe even same as last year, but I don't know the IPHC process with jurisdictions so that is just speculation.

 

[searun]

The new model is un-tested and they will be challenged to defend it yet again. Why are the observed trends contradicting their model predictions for 2013? It is far too early in the process to get overly concerned about the first apportionment models IMO. I prefer to see what ultimately comes from the Jan 17 announcements, then get concerned over what to do once we actually know what we have to deal with.

BTW, the 250K surplus really only represents a few small changes in the catch variables during prime time. So a simple change in the weather for 7 to 10 days and we could burn up that amount of TAC in August. It is way too easy to be over or under TAC. How many years were we over TAC? Goes to show even the best predictions and science cannot completely take into account the many catch variables contributing to our use of TAC.

I think we should be focusing our efforts on how to make the best out of whatever TAC we eventually get and be happy for the opportunity to plan fishing trips and go have some fun.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

2013 was a pretty good weather year I think most will agree. Only about one week of real bad weather where it stopped possiblity for halibut fishing for most of summer I found. And 7 day weather change would eat up 250k? That'd be 35k a day...which over a month would be our whole tac at 1.05mill lbs! Come on now Pat! That's just fear mongering. But if you think coastwide we could catch 35,000lbs a day for a week then...well, I don't really think I need to continue that sentence.

Nevermind fact that 2013 was a good weather year...so if anything pushed catch up. At very least I think everyone can agree it did not push catch down this past season.

IPHC from listening to webinar really does seem keen on this new model. I hope that you are right and it can be challenged, but time will tell.

 

[UkeeDreamin]

Of course we all have our perspectives and as BC rec anglers we're hoping for abundance and IPHC outcomes that enable a full season with reasonable harvest expectations. While I appreciate your optimism, Searun, I've been following this halibut issue pretty closely for the past few years, both domestically and Internationally, and to say that the IPHC scientists were pissed that the new model wasn't adopted last year would be understating. The IPHC scientist who posts over on IFISH is definitely of the opinion the new model will be adopted this year.

I have to agree with Serengetti, Searun, again I appreciate your optimism and positive spin on things but we're talking about one quarter of our TAC that went unharvested - it's ridiculous to suggest that was due to a short period of bad weather, particularly given the evidence that the annual limit and max size clearly had the effect of reducing harvest rate significantly. We had three straight years of identical TACs and identical season lengths and, despite the addition of the slot, 1 under, 1 over - applied only to the possession fish, we had identical harvest - clearly no effect on harvest rate. The addition of an annual limit and max size and we have the longest season in years and only harvest 3/4th of the TAC - that's a dramatic effect.

Regardless of the IPHC outcomes, I hope an honest, open and science-based review is done to review the "experiment" from the last few years and only those measures that are necessary and defensible put forward as options. I've made no secrets of where my bias lies - the slot has been a burden on only one portion of the rec community and clearly has had no effect on harvest rates and, as such, shouldn't be part of any regulations going forward. I think Serengetti's also been pretty open about his interest - ability to have some form of access to trophy fish. Given enough TAC and given how dramatically reduced harvest rates were last year with the new restrictions, I think there may be an opportunity there for someone to propose something in that regard that might work.

It will be interesting to see what comes out as the allocation for Canada!

Ukee

 

[Dave S]

Shall see how she goes, but hopefully our guys can battle for similar TAC as this year.

When you say "our guys", who exactly are you referring to?

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Well said Ukee. I know I may get riled up on here, but it's only because I am passionate about fishing and the fact I believe everyone should have the right to keep a fish they may only catch once in their life and believe there are options out there that would allow that to happen within our TAC.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

When you say "our guys", who exactly are you referring to?

Our CDN delegates that will be at the annual meeting in January. Combination of commercial and rec sector who attend the annual meeting and work with IPHC to set our poundage as an area (2B) for the upcoming season.

 

[fish4all]

If we buy into the new modle we are screwed. The apportionment model is so flawed it's sickening. How can they propose an increase in area 3 when the survey tanked they left fish on the water and fishing was slow. Then tell area 2 they need cuts when are commercial CPU is at an all time high and are surveys are basically flat with a slight up tick over the last few years. Trying to break the pie up based on bottom area is insane when you look at the difference in habitat alone.

 

[Last Chance]

Not good at all. Hopefully SVIAC's two votes at IPHC will be able to stop this madness...

 

[Cuba Libre]

LC--its not what SVIAC can do with their two "votes"-- its how the WHOLE Canadian delegation can pull together to get a better deal. Our delegates are there fighting for a better deal for CANADA--- once we get the Canadian TAC from IPHC then the infighting begins.

 

[GDW]

I don't think bad weather was much of a factor this last season but great salmon returns certainly were. The year before chinook salmon fishing was quite slow in my area and as a result way more people targeted halibut. This year chinook fishing was lights out so predictably fewer boats were targeting halibut.

So many variables one season really can't tell you what the overall effect of the regulation was but it appears to have worked.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Over worked...over regulated. As for salmon that may be more area by area as I'd say similar seasons 2012-2013 for our area and most of wcvi was good this year but also last year. Up north anyway

 

[chris73]

I don't think bad weather was much of a factor this last season but great salmon returns certainly were. The year before chinook salmon fishing was quite slow in my area and as a result way more people targeted halibut. This year chinook fishing was lights out so predictably fewer boats were targeting halibut.

So many variables one season really can't tell you what the overall effect of the regulation was but it appears to have worked.

From what I heard salmon fishing effort in area 19 and 20 was way down this year due to the heavy restrictions way into the middle of July.

 

[Dave S]

Our CDN delegates that will be at the annual meeting in January. Combination of commercial and rec sector who attend the annual meeting and work with IPHC to set our poundage as an area (2B) for the upcoming season.

Is anyone from the sfab included in the CDN delegates?

 

[searun]

Sorry David, I owe you a huge apology. Its more like exactly 16 days. I guess I should have run the exact math before "putting it out there." And, that is with no other variables kicking in. This is a complex fishery and predicting exactly how many fish multiple thousands of anglers will catch isn't precise.

One thing I do know talking to a lot of guys is most I encounter would rather have the opportunity for a longer season than taking the risk of having their season cut short so some guys who want to catch the big one can have their way. I also heard a lot of guys from the Victoria area telling me just how important that early February fishery is for them. So a longer season has more value to most guys I talk to than a short uncertain one where they can catch the hog. A lot of other guys are telling me they want certainty of being able to book their holidays and be able to actually fish halibut. So whatever TAC we get it will come down to balancing the needs and interests of the majority of users.

As for that new model, well IMO it is crap and there is no doubt both sides in this debate will be gearing up.

All that said, I still think it is far too early to get worked up over something we don't even know is or isn't going to happen.

Regardless, we will have a season and there will be opportunity for anglers to go out there and enjoy catching hali's.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

That proves my point. 16 days....that's 1/4 of the main high time season...I don't even think we had 10 horrible weather days where one couldn't get out all season...never mind 16. Don't get me wrong I realize its complex. But you're white washing some of the main issues.

I don't think you realize the economic impact this could have on some places either (other than Victoria...there is a world other than Victoria after all). A lodge I know of was running at 33% capacity for most of summer this year and had literally dozens of cancellations due to new regs. I did a little research into what the max size limitin SE Alaska did to charter operators there. 40% reduction in charter bookings overall. The longer this goes on, the worse it will get as well. I'm more than willing to provide links to the Alaska numbers as well.

Why do you say a few can catch hogs? It's unbiased, any single fisherman can catch them. That's the beauty of it! Talk about divide and conquer techniques there searun. Exact ones you always get mad at people for using.

So you're saying with 250,000 extra pounds you don't think anglers could of kept one bigger fish and had season go into October?

Also. Every angler I talked to said they rather get a large one or at least have the option to especially with 250k underage. These are everyday anglers. If you were the fighter for every day angler as you attempt to portray you would of just went 1/1 as that benefits coastal residents more than anyone. But you want 2 fish for your guests and you don't catch a ton of monsters so that affects you less. This is what bugs me the most about your posts searun. You pretend to be for the coastal fisher person and say I'm selfish when really you are just as selfish if not more so than myself. That's my last post on this thread in regards to anything but iphc related stuff. But had to be said.

 

[Aces]

These Halibut management threads are ridiculous.....

 

[profisher]

I agree High Five. We are getting the dirty end of every stick down hear since the late 90's. Most recently we have been singled out to bear the total reduction in Fraser River Chinook catches to meet the new conservation target numbers. This when science shows these fish are caught in similar numbers up and down the coast. We have sucked it up and have put up with this without pushing for the rest of the province to share this pain so that we don't suffer to such an extreme alone. With comments like that, that could end!