Chinook Return Trends - How bad is it really?

[searun]

Earlier this year, there were some concerns being raised that the warm blob had caused some very significant poor ocean survival for Chinook all along the coast. I heard the US guys saying they had big concerns over the Columbia Chinook return because they were having great difficulty finding out-migrating smolts off shore Oregon and Washington.

Lately I have been fishing the Nanoose area, which according to predictions should have poor fishing due to concerns of Puget Sound Chinook and Harrison River Chinook. My experience, and that of others has been quite different. In fact, I have heard some fellow anglers saying this season so far has been one of the best in recent memory...and I concur. That led me to go and fact check the Columbia River Adult return data as they have accurate fish counters due to the many dams and fish ladders.

Interestingly, the Spring Chinook returns are far better than forecast. In fact looking at this year (supposedly a bad one) the returns are better than last season, but well below the 10 year average. Looking at the Bonneville data the year to date adult returns so far are 46,244, compared to 30,088, and a 10 year average of 106,048.

Just wondering what others have experienced, and anyone seeing similar adult chinook return data? Could it be that all the concerns we are hearing about Chinook returns to BC are also off the mark? Thoughts?

Here's the link to the Columbia River data:

http://www.fpc.org/web/apps/adultsalmon/Q_dailyadultcountsgraph.php

 

[Bifmalibu]

Sure effin hope so.

 

[Che]

Remember four years ago when umpteen billion Sockeye showed up in the Fraser River? They never saw that coming.

We really know nothing about ocean survivability for salmon. These run estimates are just a blindfolded throw at the dart board.

 

[Charter Tofino]

Wcvi troll fleet is bleeding out. Pretty good indicator for the coast that it’s going to be a tough one.

 

[Reel Time]

Wcvi troll fleet is bleeding out. Pretty good indicator for the coast that it’s going to be a tough one.

Elaborate? Last year it was small size on average that shut down the early commercials (4-6 pound springs)... Is it numbers this year?

 

[Aces]

Kelly is right. Really slow around here the last 2 weeks. A big lull in the migrators with just a few stragglers. If Nog isn't finding them up the hill it's not looking good.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Never know. Couple years ago numbers weren’t bad of fish going past Tofino but they just weren’t stopping n feeding. I trust the ladder numbers more than troll fleet.

Don’t think you can say sky is falling yet (although every post Shaun does lol)

 

[GLG]

Earlier this year, there were some concerns being raised that the warm blob had caused some very significant poor ocean survival for Chinook all along the coast. I heard the US guys saying they had big concerns over the Columbia Chinook return because they were having great difficulty finding out-migrating smolts off shore Oregon and Washington.

Lately I have been fishing the Nanoose area, which according to predictions should have poor fishing due to concerns of Puget Sound Chinook and Harrison River Chinook. My experience, and that of others has been quite different. In fact, I have heard some fellow anglers saying this season so far has been one of the best in recent memory...and I concur. That led me to go and fact check the Columbia River Adult return data as they have accurate fish counters due to the many dams and fish ladders.

Interestingly, the Spring Chinook returns are far better than forecast. In fact looking at this year (supposedly a bad one) the returns are better than last season, but well below the 10 year average. Looking at the Bonneville data the year to date adult returns so far are 46,244, compared to 30,088, and a 10 year average of 106,048.

Just wondering what others have experienced, and anyone seeing similar adult chinook return data? Could it be that all the concerns we are hearing about Chinook returns to BC are also off the mark? Thoughts?

Here's the link to the Columbia River data:

http://www.fpc.org/web/apps/adultsalmon/Q_dailyadultcountsgraph.php

It's the Harrison Fall 4 year old fish that are the problem this year as you know. They will be ~19+ lb. and white meat. I would not expect to see them until sometime in June. If you are seeing smaller white meat fish then they could be 3 year olds and there should be lots of them.

 

[cohochinook]

Locally around Vancouver the Chinook fishing has been very good this spring. Definitely one of better years that I have experienced in the last 15 years.

 

[searun]

Could be the diversion rate is higher than normal at top end of the island. More fish going down east side than west. I can’t explain the better than usual fishing in SOG as compared to WCVI.

 

[Floater]

It’s was this good, if not better last year in the spring.

 

[cohochinook]

Could be the diversion rate is higher than normal at top end of the island. More fish going down east side than west. I can’t explain the better than usual fishing in SOG as compared to WCVI.

I think one of the big reasons is there is lots of forage fish around Vancouver, especially herring. I believe because of this were seeing more Chinook stay in the area and not migrate as far.

 

[wildmanyeah]

Over the last several years we have has some amazing spring fishing around vancouver Mid April to Mid May. I also contribute this to the return of bait fish to the SOG and vancouver/howe sound. Tonnes more anchovies, herring and even sickle backs near the fraser. They all feast on that brown **** that sticks your lines. Last year however we had 3 weeks where we had fishing over at thrasher where you would limit out in less then an hour. This year was about a 2 week window. Last year i caught 2 fish over 15 pounds and 1 over 20 pounds all white. This year I caught that same amount of fish but all around 10 pounds. I don't even bother to fish June and July anymore, Will head back out probably in August. From the heads i've turned in they have been Puget sound fish and Harrison/Cap/Vedder fish. All local stocks that actively known to feed in the SOG. In April they seem to have small herring/anchovies/sticklebacks in their stomach and then in late april early may they seem to have 1 or 2 huge herring in their bellies. In vancouver it's going to shut off like a light switch in the next few weeks I would bet.

I can't speak for anyone else's experience but mine.

 

[Whitebuck]

As long as your local hatcherys on the Vedder, Chehalis, stave and Capilano are still around the Thrasher fishery will continue to be good.
The August early September mouth of Fraser fishery will start to tank ASAP as the most abundant stock of Chinook gets absolutely hammered by in river netting now that they dont have a sockeye quota.
The south Thompson Chinook which has been the most abundant and stable stock on the Fraser has gone to absolute **** the last few years....

 

[FV Chicken Nugget]

^ yup good predictions.

However, historically Harrison chinook have been the most abundant Fraser stock.... until recently.

From my catch observations The South Thompson stock has only been abundant in recent years and peaked in 2015... these fish mostly spawn in the main stem south Thompson between Kamloops lake and Shuswap lake (chase riffle).

 

[searun]

I spent some time looking at the Avid Angler DNA and catch data. Very interesting to see where SOG fish come from. Not surprisingly a great many are Puget Sound, and in years past Harrison Whites also contributed. Cowichan fish are rebounding, and will contribute more to the SOG catch in recent and likely current year(s).

The pattern with Harrison Whites is they spend the early part of the season (winter into June) in lower SOG, but then move up to Areas 13/14 afterwards. On rare occasions they will go up and around the island coming down WCVI, but rarely. They also rarely range much beyond the top of the island.

One of the Avid Anglers did a really fine analysis of the catch data, setting out trends, stock composition and age classes that contributed to the fishery. The paper is way too large to post here, and frankly its not my document so I wouldn't anyway unless I had permission.

The fish we are catching in SOG are generally (largely) fish that range in the SOG. There are some years where the diversion rate is higher than usual and we get fish that traditionally roam down the outside. This could be happening...but so too could it be related to Alaska closing down their troll fishery. A lot more fish will find their way down here as a result.

 

[wildmanyeah]

Great data Searun.

I would think tho that diversion rate would only come into play in August and September when they make their way back down to spawn in the Harrison. It would be very interesting to see where the age 4 fish are caught besides the mouth of the Fraser in September.

Seems like the herring come into the south SOG to spawn in early March and the Harrison white follow them back out in end of May.

Seems to me like the herring population is pivotal to keeping the Harrison stock well fed.

 

[Reel Time]

I had a few years of dedicated hatchery head returns - 5-7 years ago - 100% were American I recall, majority from Puget sound and even a Columbian off Thrasher... Albeit the wild salmon off thrasher I would say were majority Fraser as they had the longer body ratio and deep purple color - that I seemed to glean from past River fishing.

 

[searun]

The Columbia fish would be as a result of that diversion rate at the top of the island. In recent years we had the warm water off the WCVI, and colder water near the mainland which helped draw more fish down the inside. That warm blob (circa 2016/17) is breaking up but not gone.

Talking to a buddy about the water off the north island, and the trollers are having a great deal of difficulty with the warm water Pyrosomes which are clogging up their gear so badly they can't fish! Pyrosomes are attracted to our area by warm plankton rich water typically not good for salmon! So we could see a change in the diversion rate if the warm water stays around.