Fraser River sockeye returns predicted to be dismal — again — this summer

IIRC 2014 was forecasted 10-72m but then after it was said and done more like 26m was what theyd said. Just like the 2010 year which was forecasted low but then far exceded anything expected. Now they use more realistic forecasting which basically states theyre like weathermen they have an idea of whats going on but the best thing to do is stick your head out the window or go and wet a line.

Dont quote me on any of those numbers though because i cant say there facts.
Trust me I won't quote anything you said as fact or somewhat helpful.
 
Several reasons are to blame for this summer’s dismal situation, including low spawning escapements four years ago and poor survival related to warm ocean conditions.

“Unusually warm ocean temperatures, now referred to as the ‘warm blob’, were observed in the central northeast Pacific Ocean throughout 2014 and 2015,” the commission said in a news release. “Warm temperatures of this magnitude and duration have not been observed in over 50 years.” Forgot to mention the gaunlet of Sea Lice Infested and Disease carrying Salmon Farm Feed lots the sockeye smolts need to swim past in order to survive to be able to return and spawn.
Not just the poor escapement in many of those stocks 4 years ago, but the low number of effective females that year.
 
Everyones a critic.
I applaud those out there putting in the time to get the statistics, rebuilding the watersheds, and addressing the concerns on the councils/boards/panels which have positive impacts for the fishing community.
Not so big on the arm chair quarter backs and grand standers though.

Here's a good read from an article on the 2014 year. Also has some references for run forescasting.
http://commonsensecanadian.ca/missing-fish-farms-offer-clue-anticipated-70-million-sockeye-return/
 
Are you asking if I think are are wild cows and pigs walking around in the wild????
Lol... Um no I'm saying that there are so many free range cattle on crown land pooping on native grasses and plants. .. So in short its ok for land farms to use our backyard as a shithouse but not ok for ocean farming.... Make any sense? Sortta double standard for farming isn't it?
Ya - you are definitely right bones.

It is a glaringly obvious double standard to have cattle exclusion zones and buffer areas around bison areas in the NWT and Alberta - to mitigate wild/cultured stock interactions including disease concerns (brucellosus, anthrax, etc.) - but **NOT** even acknowledging that reality in ocean waters vis-a-vis mitigating wild/cultured interactions.....same agency too - CFIA
 
An article written by DC reid lol. His credibility and anything to do with Fraser sockeye is a joke. I wonder if he wrote the article in exchange for a fishing trip somewhere...
 
Sea lice outbreak: Study finds management delays may have made it worse
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Delays in treatment of sea-lice infestations on salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago in 2015 may have contributed to the transfer of the parasites to wild fish, according to a new study.

While some farms applied parasiticides during the winter, others didn’t treat for sea lice until just before or during the wild-fish out-migration months later.

Last year’s sea-lice outbreak was a perfect storm of events, starting with the transfer of sea lice from hyper-abundant wild pink salmon to ocean-based salmon farms in 2014, according to the study’s lead author Stephanie Peacock.

Unusually warm seas in early 2015 created ideal growing conditions for sea lice and a management challenge for fish farms.

“The number of sea lice we observed on wild juvenile salmon and the proportion of juvenile salmon that were infected was significantly higher in 2015 than the period from 2006 to 2014,” she said. “There were high numbers of sea lice all along the B.C. coast last year.”

Wild fluctuations in sea-lice infestations on wild pinks and chum salmon between 2001 and 2005 gave way to a decade of low sea-lice levels, until last year.

“We have seen very low numbers since 2006 and we were thinking maybe we’ve figured (sea-lice management) out,” she said.

Peacock and fellow University of Toronto post-doctoral researcher Andrew Bateman analyzed data collected since 2001 under the direction of independent scientist Alexandra Morton, a co-author of the study.

Juvenile wild salmon are naturally protected from the transfer of sea lice from returning pinks, she said.

“Sea lice get transferred to farmed salmon in the fall, they overwinter on the salmon and get transferred to wild salmon in the spring,” she said. “Ordinarily the returning pinks and out-migrating wild salmon would never come in contact.”

Sea-lice numbers on salmon farms were higher in 2015 compared with the recent past, according to data from Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

The researchers also found that the proportion of precautionary winter treatments on farms had dropped and the number of farms treating during the wild- salmon migration had increased.

“There seemed to be a period during which farms appeared to be hosting large numbers of sea lice,” she said.

The authors conclude that in addition to sea-lice management thresholds, the industry should consider area-wide management to prevent farms fromreinfecting each other when treatments are months apart.

“Last year there were some specific circumstances that led to increases in sea-lice abundance across the board, including areas where there are no fish farms,” said Crawford Revie, a Canada Research Chair and professor at the Atlantic Veterinary College at the University of P.E.I. “Warm temperatures, high salinity and large returns of (infested) pinks were the main factors.”

Crawford is skeptical that fish farmers would purposely delay treatments.

“These farmers know better than anybody that you have to get on top of these things,” he said. “They don’t play Russian roulette with sea lice.”

Jeremy Dunn, executive director of the B.C. Salmon Farmers Association, was pleased that the study found sea-lice treatments employed by the industry continue to be effective.

Farmers are experimenting with alternative pest treatments such as hydrogen peroxide, as well as integrated pest-management systems as a way to minimize the use of chemical treatments such as Slice, said Dunn.

The association plans to invite the study’s supervising professor, Martin Krkosek, to present the study to its research forum in February, he said.

rshore@postmedia.com
 
Everyones a critic.
I applaud those out there putting in the time to get the statistics, rebuilding the watersheds, and addressing the concerns on the councils/boards/panels which have positive impacts for the fishing community.
Not so big on the arm chair quarter backs and grand standers though.

Here's a good read from an article on the 2014 year. Also has some references for run forescasting.
http://commonsensecanadian.ca/missing-fish-farms-offer-clue-anticipated-70-million-sockeye-return/

The only difference is that this critic knows what he's talking about in regards to forecasting. Your first problem is listening to D.C Reid and what he has to say on forecasting and how it is done. Reid is clueless. He should stick to poetry. For one thing, Sockeye smolts migrate out of Chilko Lake - not fry. Second, adult Sockeye do not pass by the "Mission fence"- it's a hydroacoustic site. Also forgot mention the Cottonwood and Whonnock test fishing sites where DNA is taken for racial analysis at the site. Why don't you read the 2014, 2015 and 2016 forecasts yourself and see what is done. You should also familiarize yourself with the challenges forecasters face and how that impacts the forecast. I have posted on the subject extensively already so I am not keen on repeating it for those that casually glance over this and think they have it all figured out.

Reid then speculates as to why the 2010 Fraser Sockeye return was so huge, but fails to actually look a little closer at the Cohen Final Report in regards to those Chinook farms. As for Miller's discovery, she suspected that it could be a virus but more research was required to show that. There was no evidence that what she found actually caused disease. It's in the Cohen Final Report - read it.

Interestingly you use a 2014 article, because Harrison Sockeye came well under brood in 2015 along with many others Fraser Sockeye stocks, but some others did better than brood. In a nutshell, there was inconsistencies in the 2015 returns so to say that everything came in poor was not accurate. I thought Reid said that Harrison Sockeye avoid all those fish farms. Don't listen to Reid and be careful what you believe in the Nonsense Canadian.
 
http://www-ops2.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fraserriver/firstnations/HTMLs/CommunalOpeningTimes.html

Less than 2 million sockeye forecast and they are letting FN take half? You guys still wonder why the Fraser returns keep declining?
Pretty awesome that they are having a net opening in chilliwack lake as well. One of the bright stocks of sockeye these days......so might as well wipe them out!!! Pretty easy to get some huge sets as they are all schooled up at the upper river mouth.

Full blown netting on the Squamish now as well, those boot white springs must taste pretty good. I wonder how they even sell them lol
 
There was a net completely across lower vedder yesterday in the canal. DFO is allowing them to do this now. Pretty smart especially when some of the cultas lake sockeye just started showing up.
 
There was a net completely across lower vedder yesterday in the canal. DFO is allowing them to do this now. Pretty smart especially when some of the cultas lake sockeye just started showing up.
I'll have to check the "revised" version of the Navigable Waters Act (post Harper regime) but... USED TO BE... nobody could block off any more than 2/3 of a river and only up to 1/3 of the thalweg...
 
No prob with this when it was a seine show in that spot, fish can be corralled, non-targets (primarily chinook) released with low mortality and targeted numbers harvested. Now having moved to day and night drift gill netting in the Vedder Canal not sure how anyone involved rationalize it.

Very sad.

Equally sad for those who know the Vedder and Lower Fraser fisheries is the recent passing of Dave Willey, one of the founding members of the BCFDF and known to be a top rod on the Vedder and any other flow where steelhead could be found. Will miss you Smurf, RIP!

Cheers!

Ukee
 
Ukee, i read it briefly. Rodney Hsu and his colleagues discussed this idea and found it to be ok?
This opens up other areas and fisheries that they are going to want to net. We now have Squamish being netted....
By allowing these things to escelate we are opening the door for other fisheries to be netted. Will they want to try and net our hatchery steelhead next?
 
I'm sure Rodney Hsu is a nice guy but liking to fish, buying a camera and making YouTube videos doesn't qualify you to be advising on this stuff! Why I have such issues with the SFAC/SFAB process - lay-person volunteers can't adequately represent the best interests of the fishery. Not fair to them and certainly not fair to the fishery!

Just my two-cents!

Cheers!

Ukee
 
I think what Rod was saying there is that they approved of seining and dip netting back in 2012 and was surprised to see that gill netting had been approved
 
He should not be involved in any decisions about our fisheries. Lack of knowledge and experience around our fisheries will only lead to poor decisions being made.
He should stick to making money off our fisheries with his website....
 
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